近日，孙天合副研究员合作论文“Substituting Groundwater With Surface Water for Irrigation in Northern China: Current Status, Effectiveness and Challenges”在国际农业与资源经济学领域高水平期刊 Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics（AJARE）在线发表（https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.70108）。论文合作者包括南京农业大学经济管理学院讲师关宝珠（共同一作）、厦门大学经济学院助理教授陈煌、河海大学地理与遥感学院教授王金霞（通讯作者）、北京大学现代农学院博士研究生晁炜。
ABSTRACT
China's irrigated heartlands face concurrent pressures of aquifer depletion and grain security. We evaluate Hebei's Substituting Groundwater with Surface Water for Irrigation (SGSWI) project—a medium-scale, short-haul program—using county-level panel data and a staggered difference-in-differences design that combines water accounts, monthly deep/shallow groundwater levels, meteorological controls and agricultural statistics, supplemented by village/household surveys. We find that the SGSWI project rebalances irrigation sources without raising total agricultural water use: surface water rises by 3.2%, whereas groundwater falls by 2.3%. The program benefits deep aquifers—deep withdrawals decline 5.3% and the depth to the deep water table recovers by 1.85 m—with no detectable effect on shallow systems. Regarding production, grain output increases 8.3%, driven by a 7.4% expansion in sown area and a 3.7% rise in the multiple-cropping index; yields per unit area, water-use efficiency and fertiliser use intensity remain unchanged. Effects are larger where projects connect to inter-provincial transfers and in severely overdrafted counties; dual-source counties show the biggest output gains but risk rebound in total water use. A recipient-side cost–benefit accounting yields an internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.55%, with one-way sensitivity checks showing only moderate sensitivity to groundwater valuation, operational and maintenance (O&M) costs, and tariffs but strong sensitivity to shortfalls in realised transfer volumes. Sustainability, however, is constrained by supply uncertainty, weak inter-regional coordination, incomplete infrastructure, underdeveloped operation and maintenance and underpricing. Policy priorities include targeting severe overdraft basins, locking in multi-year delivery commitments, completing and funding ‘last-mile’ assets, introducing volumetric and tiered tariffs with safeguards and strengthening aquifer-specific monitoring and accountability.
